How To Count Cards In Baccarat
Counting cards in Baccarat is a controversial topic. We'll look at two methods of card counting and see if they have an merit. We'll look at two methods of card counting and see if they have. We tested the Baccarat Card Counting System against a live dealer. Grab the spreadsheet here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/gb698po686jlina/Baccarat%20Counting.x. Baccarat Card Counting Contrary to popular belief, there are effective ways to count cards in Baccarat, though it’s different than card counting in other games. Counting cards is a method used in a number of gambling games used to make an approximation about the nature of the cards left in the deck or shoe. The Mechanics of Card Counting Baccarat When there's a new shoe or deck used, you start over with a count of zero. When an ace, two or three is dealt from the deck, you'll add one to that count, which indicates an increased chance of switching to the player bet. Fours are worth double, so you'll add two to the count when these cards are dealt.
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- How To Count Cards In Baccarat
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11 members have voted
WizardAdministrator
However, one topic I've had on my list of ideas is card counting in baccarat. It can be used to cut down the house edge, but very very rarely will it overcome it. That said, please visit my new page on Card Counting in Baccarat. It shows how to easily cut down the house edge of 0.93%.
I'm sure someone will say to just play blackjack, which I agree with. However, this at least addresses the topic in more depth than I've ever seen done before.
I welcome all comments on my article.
The question for the poll is what is your baccarat strategy?
How To Count Cards In Blackjack With Multiple Decks
I count cards in Baccarat using Eliot Jacobson’s system (10,9 = 0, 1,2,3 =-1, 4 =-2, 5,7,8=1 and 6=2). I bet on Banker until the true count hits about +2 or so, then I'll switch to Player. If the true count is in the range of -2 to +3, I'll usually bet only half my normal wager. If the count gets anywhere from about -6 to +6, which usually happens near the end of the shoe, I’ll double my normal wager.
As you’ve pointed out before, there is NO WAY to practically use a counting system to turn Baccarat into a +EV game. The best one can hope for is to lessen the house edge a little bit. I count in order to do that, and to make the game a little more interesting.
Your system is really nice. I very much like how your Level 2 strategy uses a running count coupled with the progression on the Bead Plate to somewhat approximate the true count. Very ingenious.
Note, in the Level 2 section I was unable to see the image of the Bead Plate with the player in the sixth column (it may just have been my browser).
Administrator
Heh. I get it. You've been asked about this on the LiveStream so many times that you can now simply tell people to go to your website.
Thanks. I had some technical issues with that. Here it is.
Administrator
Mike, first off let me say thanks! Your website resources on Baccarat are totally outstanding. They really demonstrate, for those who are willing to listen, that the mathematics of Baccarat are well understood and that there’s no magic bullet to the game.
Thank you! And you're welcome.
I count cards in Baccarat using Eliot Jacobson’s system (10,9 = 0, 1,2,3 =-1, 4 =-2, 5,7,8=1 and 6=2). I bet on Banker until the true count hits about +2 or so, then I'll switch to Player. If the true count is in the range of -2 to +3, I'll usually bet only half my normal wager. If the count gets anywhere from about -6 to +6, which usually happens near the end of the shoe, I’ll double my normal wager.
Thanks for mentioning this. I didn't know Eliot wrote about this. There is a strong effect of the 4 and the 6, so maybe I'll analyze Eliot's system next.
Remember the EV of the best bet isn't the worst at zero. In the case of my count, it's at -4.
It's hard to find things to write about in a time when many casinos are closed and those that are open are not trying anything new.
However, one topic I've had on my list of ideas is card counting in baccarat. It can be used to cut down the house edge, but very very rarely will it overcome it. That said, please visit my new page on Card Counting in Baccarat. It shows how to easily cut down the house edge of 0.93%.
I'm sure someone will say to just play blackjack, which I agree with. However, this at least addresses the topic in more depth than I've ever seen done before.
I welcome all comments on my article.
The question for the poll is what is your baccarat strategy?
My strategy for online game, use ev calculator to find ev after each hand . . . . .and yet still NOT worth to play it, unless you have other promo/rebate . . . .
Can you address card counting for the tie bet?
I never tried it but here is my thoughts.
In an 8 deck shoe there are 416 cards total.
128 cards are zero value cards (10, J,Q,K)
So what if you counted to determine when there is a 'zero value' rich deck and bet tie.
The idea being a deck heavy in zero value cards will result in tie more often at a nice 8:1 payout
Administrator
Wizard,
Can you address card counting for the tie bet?
I have looked at that. If must have +EV, that is where you'll most often find it. However, only rarely towards the end of the shoe. The vast majority of the time, the house edge is a tall mountain to overcome.
However, maybe I'll come up with something. Baccarat is slow enough somebody could keep a side Tie count.
I know I'm missing something crucial, would you set me straight? I haven't been to Vegas in a while and I'm itching to get back in the game. And there are a few Hard Rock casinos in Florida.
Thanks for you time
FlaTrips
Administrator
Newbie to Wizard forum, ....
Welcome to the forum.
Please post your question in the video poker section. I would suggest making a new thread for it.
Thank you.
You’re probably aware that you can count cards in blackjack and win money. Gamblers have been beating blackjack for decades through card counting.
However, baccarat card counting is far more low profile. The reason why is because it doesn’t generate many profits.
But you can make a fair amount of money when counting with a certain baccarat side bet. I’ll discuss more on how you can use this method later. First, though, I’d like to discuss why regular baccarat counting doesn’t result in big winnings.
The Problem With Standard Baccarat Card Counting
Some gamblers are shocked upon finding out that blackjack isn’t the only game that can be beaten through card counting. You can also earn long-term profits by counting baccarat games as well.
Of course, you need to learn the proper strategy before you’re able to make profits. If you put in the dedication, though, you can beat baccarat. However, there’s a big catch involved. You’re not going to make much money at all!
Maybe you still wouldn’t mind counting for fun once and a while if it were easy. However, counting this game is just as difficult as doing so with blackjack.
In short, you’re wasting time by counting cards in baccarat. You might as well just sit back, relax, and place the banker bet (1.06% house edge) every time.
Welcome to the Dragon Side Bet
You can see that baccarat isn’t a profitable game for advantage players (APs) under normal circumstances. No respectable AP will waste their time with earning $0.70 or less.
However, the Dragon side bet offers an interesting opportunity to make larger profits. I’ll discuss how you can count with the Dragon wager later.
First, though, I’d like to cover more on how this bet works. It features the following rules:
- You wager on whether the banker or player will beat the other side by a certain point margin.
- The banker or player must win with a “natural” (eight or nine on first two cards).
- Bets on larger margins of victory deliver bigger payouts.
The common pay table for both the player and banker side is as follows:
- Win by 9 = 30:1 payout
- Win by 8 = 10:1
- Win by 7 = 6:1
- Win by 6 = 4:1
- Win by 5 = 2:1
- Win by 4 = 1:1
- Anything else = Loss
Counting Cards With the Dragon Side Bet
You can see how the Dragon side wager works. Now, I’ll cover how it can help you make profits with card counting.
How Do You Count Cards In Baccarat
The first thing to realize about baccarat is that most casinos allow very deep deck penetration. In most cases, the dealer makes it almost to the end of an eight-deck shoe.
This deck penetration is significant when considering that you stand to win more money as a counter upon seeing additional cards. After all, your count will be more accurate towards the end of a shoe.
Casinos don’t allow this much penetration in order to stop blackjack card counters. But they have no problem doing so with baccarat when considering that normal counting methods don’t result in much profit.
However, this extra deck penetration can definitely help you win with side bets. You just need to know how to do so with the Dragon wager.
As mentioned above, player and banker dragon bets carry 2.65% and 9.37% house advantages, respectively. Therefore, you want to bet on the player’s side when counting.
Dr. Eliot Jacobson, a renowned gambling mathematician, has run the numbers on counting the Dragon bet. He notes that you want a shoe that’s rich in sevens, eights, and nines.
These cards increase the chances of your chosen Dragon side getting a natural. They should be assigned a point value of -1 when they come out of the shoe (bad for you).
Meanwhile, twos and threes are the worst cards for helping form naturals. Therefore, you want as few of these cards as possible. They should draw a point value of +1 when they’re dealt.
As with blackjack card counting, you’re looking for a positive count before raising bets. Upon determining a positive count, you should raise your wagers to capitalize.
What Kind of Edge Can You Gain With This AP Strategy?
The nice thing about counting cards in baccarat is that you don’t need to worry about much, if any, heat from the casino. Gambling establishments will let you count this game all day.
That said, you have a decent chance of walking away with profits at the end of the day when everything goes right. However, you shouldn’t expect to get rich with this strategy.
But this profit rate assumes that you get optimal deck penetration, where the dealer only leaves 14 cards undealt out of an eight-deck shoe.
Assuming the dealer places the cut card further up, then your profits drop. Here’s how much you can look forward to earning based on where the cut card is placed:
How To Count Cards In Blackjack Decks
- Cut card at 14 cards = $9.09 per hour
- Cut card at 26 cards = $6.75
- Cut card at 52 cards = $3.99
- Cut card at 104 cards = $1.50
Is Counting Cards With the Dragon Bet Worthwhile?
Counting the Dragon bet offers around the same profits as you’d earn when playing full-pay Deuces Wild with a quarter denomination. The latter delivers between $7 and $9 per hour under ideal conditions.
As an AP, you can earn up to a maximum of $9 hourly with the Dragon bet. Therefore, you can look forward to a decent profit when considering that casino games normally take money from you in the long run.
But is it worthwhile to actually go through all the trouble to make $9 each hour? I certainly wouldn’t say so.
You can make this same hourly wage with much simpler jobs. Dishwashers and convenience store workers earn this same amount. Why then, would you want to do something that’s much riskier just to make the same amount with a less stressful job?
How Do You Play Baccarat
The only reasonable answer is if you view winning at baccarat as a challenge and want to profit off your gambling hobby. In this case, making $9 each hour in the casino isn’t so bad.
How To Count Cards In Blackjack For Dummies
However, you certainly shouldn’t quit your day job to capitalize on the Dragon bet. This opportunity just doesn’t offer enough money to make it worth your time.
Conclusion
Regular baccarat card counting is a complete wash. It calls on you to diligently count cards in pursuit of making pennies each hour.
But standard baccarat counting isn’t the only way to make money with this game. You can earn bigger profits through the Dragon side bet.
How To Count Cards In Baccarat
When you count and bet on the Dragon wager in the right manner, you can make upwards of $9 per hour. Much of your winnings, though, depend upon where the cut card is placed.
That said, you can make $9 every hour with ideal deck penetration. But you probably still don’t find this amount to be worth the trouble of counting cards in baccarat.